Calculate the theoretical probability that any options strategy expires profitable. Based on Black-Scholes log-normal distribution. Free, no signup required.
Expected move at expiration
±1 SD: $25.8 (5.7% move)
Range: $424.2 – $475.8
Probability of Profit
61.6%
Stock stays between $427.50–$472.50
Max Profit
$250
per contract
Max Loss
$750
per contract
Breakevens
$427.5
-5.0% from current
$472.5
5.0% from current
Expected Value
-$133.91
= 61.6% × $250 − 38.4% × $750
Iron condor profits when stock stays between $427.50 and $472.50.
Probability of Profit (POP) is the theoretical likelihood that a strategy expires with any positive P&L. It's derived from the Black-Scholes log-normal distribution using the implied volatility and breakeven prices.
High POP doesn't mean high expected value. An iron condor with 70% POP and $200 max profit vs. $800 max loss has an EV of 70%×$200 − 30%×$800 = −$100. Always check expected value, not just POP.
Higher implied volatility lowers POP for the same strikes — the market expects bigger moves. Selling options in high IV environments gives higher premium and often better risk-adjusted POP.
With more days to expiration, there's more time for the stock to breach breakevens. For the same strikes, a 60 DTE iron condor usually has lower POP than a 30 DTE iron condor.
Iron condor POP is calculated as: Prob(stock above lower BE) + Prob(stock below upper BE) − 1. Both breakevens use the total net credit received across both short strikes.
BSM assumes log-normal returns and constant volatility. Real markets have fat tails (higher kurtosis), skew, and jumps. Actual POP may differ — especially for earnings events and high-IV-rank environments.
Supported positions can show modeled probability of profit; availability and freshness vary.
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