AAPL earnings IV crush history
AAPL options priced an average implied earnings move of 4.3% per quarter over the last 8 reports, while the stock actually moved 3.9% — and implied volatility dropped by 35.7% on average the day after the report. AAPL beat EPS estimates in 50% of the 8 quarters with surprise data. Long options held through the report usually lose both the crush and any edge between implied and realized move; short premium does the opposite.
- Avg implied move
- 4.3%
- Avg actual move
- 3.9%
- Avg IV crush
- 35.7%
- EPS beat rate
- 50%
Implied vs actual move — last 8 reports
Implied move (straddle)Actual move
- 2026-01-28
- 2025-10-29
- 2025-07-30
- 2025-04-29
- 2025-01-29
- 2024-10-30
- 2024-07-31
- 2024-04-30
Quarterly history
| Earnings date | Implied move | Actual move | IV before → after | IV crush | EPS surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | 4.5% | 5.6% up | 39.9 → 23.6 | 40.9% | -12.1% |
| 2025-10-29 | 3.9% | 1.5% down | 38.4 → 24.0 | 37.6% | -2.1% |
| 2025-07-30 | 4.6% | 6.4% down | 36.4 → 25.1 | 31.1% | 9.9% |
| 2025-04-29 | 3.5% | 6.5% up | 39.9 → 28.7 | 28.0% | 9.1% |
| 2025-01-29 | 5.3% | 2.7% up | 36.7 → 25.9 | 29.4% | -11.8% |
| 2024-10-30 | 4.0% | 1.5% down | 37.7 → 21.5 | 42.9% | 3.0% |
| 2024-07-31 | 3.5% | 2.8% down | 34.7 → 19.2 | 44.8% | 14.7% |
| 2024-04-30 | 5.3% | 4.3% up | 33.6 → 23.3 | 30.6% | -7.5% |
Data as of 2026-03-13T00:36:48.910787+00:00 · 8 quarters stored · crush ratio from 8 samples. Moves are percentages of the pre-report price; IV crush is the relative drop in implied volatility into the first session after the report.