Probability of Profit (POP)
An estimate of the probability that a position will be profitable at expiration.
Explanation
POP is model-dependent and usually derived from implied volatility assumptions. It does not measure payout size, so a high POP strategy can still have poor expected value if losses are much larger than wins. POP should be evaluated together with max loss and return on risk.
Example
A short iron condor may show POP of 68%, meaning roughly 68% modeled chance of finishing above breakeven at expiry.